Marc De Mesel: Why New Bottom $2800 Bitcoin Still Most Likely
Even if bull started, a correction to 5k BTC still very likely to hit in typical bull correction of -40% after parabolic run from bottom of $3150 to $8200. Also since undervaluation compared to trendline has always gone up over time during first stage of bull market, the sideways movement, and will likely peak out at -60% undervaluation by dec 2020, we will still see a correction to 10k by then, so the current 8k is a bad buy in point, even if bull has started.
Most likely thou, since in past, cycles have become longer over time, likely due to increased market capitalization causing markets to move slower, and overvaluation has gone down over time compared to trendline while undervaluation has gone up over time, likely due to market leader bitcoin failing in adoption due to mismanagement/high fees, this pattern will likely continue and we will see again a longer bear market as the one before, that also goes deeper in undervaluation than the one before.
Arguments that this time is different because now there are more players, more capital etc, were also valid in previous cycle yet previous cycle still last longer than cycle before.
In previous cycles a bear lasted half bull market, since bull was 3 years from bottom to top, bear will likely be 1.5 year and show us bottom around June. Sideways movement that starts after bottom, and follows trendline albeit increasing the gap slowly over time as price rises slower than trendline, in past lasted as long as bull before, so 3 years bull means 3 years sideways starting around June, ends around June 2022 at -80% undervaluation.
Planning to go to majority exposure of 70% at $5000/$200/$120 BTC/BCH/ETH just in case bull started, to 90% exposure if we reach new bottom at $2800/$100/$60, and go All In, 100% exposure, if we reach maximum of -80% undervaluation, normally to be expected much later after sideways movement, but possibly hit during new bottom if we reach $1800/$50/$30.
Additional Info
- Read full article on: Marc De Mesel
Leave a comment
Make sure you enter all the required information, indicated by an asterisk (*). HTML code is not allowed.
Disclaimer: As a news and information platform, also aggregate headlines from other sites, and republish small text snippets and images. We always link to original content on other sites, and thus follow a 'Fair Use' policy. For further content, we take great care to only publish original material, but since part of the content is user generated, we cannot guarantee this 100%. If you believe we violate this policy in any particular case, please contact us and we'll take appropriate action immediately.
Our main goal is to make crypto grow by making news and information more accessible for the masses.
Our main goal is to make crypto grow by making news and information more accessible for the masses.