Marc De Mesel: What Great Investments Did You Make During Pandemic In 2020?

  • Friday, 08 May 2020 16:06
When I ask myself this question I can feel fear is keeping me from investing in the black sheep of the day: cruise & airlines. Current valuation of Carnival Cruise Lines ($CLL) is 60% below book value, never seen before, even in biggest crises since 1929, 2008 great recession only went 20% below book value. This is likely a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy a cruise line so cheap. Probably same story for Ryanair, a great company with top leadership, also a track record of creating value for shareholders, and almost as close to book value as it went in 2008. Think most are wrong to think this corona crises changes society fundamentally and will take years to recover from, simply because the virus kills very few people. Therefore I think likely the fear mongering and lockdowns will quickly be ignored and people will feel comfortable again within a year to go out, drink, dine, travel, do sports, events and party again, and even double up to make up for lost time. This would cause revenues and valuations of these companies to go back to pre-crises levels within 1 year and would triple my money, an amazing return.

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