Marc De Mesel: Trololo is Back With Bad News For Crypto Bears AND Bitcoin Bulls

  • Monday, 06 January 2020 14:56
Crypto reached a new high in undervaluation of -52% at $180B Total Market Cap (vs $380B trendline/fair value) couple weeks back and will likely do it 2 more times in this likely early crypto bull market we are in. A new fiat bottom below $3k BTC / $100B Total Market Cap has become very unlikely but even testing the bottom at 4k $BTC / $130B is becoming unlikely in my opinion since we are seeing a 2011 pattern where we cannot any longer expect to make new ATH's in Undervaluation to say -80% vs the trendline this cycle but more likely expect a similar pattern as in 2011. In 2011 we went to -60% undervaluation, in 2015 to -70% and so I thought we will likely see -80% undervaluation. But we saw the bull market start with an extremely strong rally in 2019, going from $100B bottom to $330B, back into overvaluation even!, before correcting. This was not seen in previous early bull of 2015 where we went sideways first for a year, always staying way below the trendline. But an immediate strong breakout back into overvaluation after reaching the bottom was also the case in 2011, so I'm starting to look more to that pattern as a reference. In 2011 we did 3 steps of higher low in undervaluation from -50% to -55% to -60% before going parabolic. Think most likely we do the same with maybe 2 extra step as cycles do take longer, but meaning we will only peak out at -60% undervaluation before going parabolic. This max point of undervaluation, as in previous cycles, is likely to be expected just 1 year before the top, which I estimate at $3T end 2022, minus 1 year, means to be back at only $400B end 2021 before going parabolic and last chance to buy in relatively cheap. Most importantly, I don't think any longer it is likely we will test bottom at $4k / $130B total market cap, as for that to happen we would make new high in undervaluation of minimum -70% below trendline, which is unlikely to happen in this cycle considering the strong breakout we saw. We might actually just have 'tested the bottom' at 100% higher (6500 BTC vs 3150 Bottom / 180B vs 100B total market cap), just like we did in 2011, and might just have set a higher low, never to be seen again. Therefore, unless your other investments have a good chance to outperform crypto, I strongly recommend to correct mistakes today and go to majority crypto exposure if u believe strongly in it, but have held out thinking you can buy cheaper. It only becomes harder to buy as the market goes up and a small mistake today may end up you missing out completely on something you believed strongly in. A special note on Bitcoin Core, I strongly believe the pattern of market share loss of Bitcoin Core will continue, since weakening fundamentals have not changed, and at next top will likely again have half the market share it had compared to previous top (33%), meaning only 16%! This would cause #BitcoinCore to only peak out at $30k, while #Ethereum goes to $5k and #BitcoinCash to $15k, strongly outperforming Bitcoin Core, just by succeeding to keep the market share they had at their previous tops of 16% and 8% each. It also would cause Ethereum to become slighty bigger than Bitcoin Core at the top of this bull market, a very likely event to happen in my opinion as fundamentals have continued to be strong past years and last bull market it already reached half Bitcoin's market cap. Links: Great new channel from Benjamin Cowen using also log regression line to predict future, but with much more opitimistic view of Bitcoin Core, he also helps me calculating current trendline taking all price data into account: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCRvqjQPSeaWn-uEx-w0XOIg Crypto Investment Plan: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WSeePxcqVyZ__99I-dAcvMBZuEzTq1DX8KzstSKoS5c/edit#gid=43 Great technical analyst for smaller coins: https://www.youtube.com/user/lumbridgecity/videos

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