Marc De Mesel: Tesla Worth - Today - $150 Billion

  • Friday, 07 June 2019 10:42
Price $TSLA running away from low of $177 to $205 today ($36B), but not letting myself be discouraged and continue to aim to invest all my cash. Some would call it crazy to invest 50% of your portfolio in 1 stock but if that one stock has low risk, very high reward, that is not risky. Tesla is low risk because odds for it to default is very low, 1% I would estimate, as it does make big margins on their products, and simply needs to stop expanding so fast to show more profits on the books. There is small chance it collapses to $10B/$50, say 10% chance, cut by 4 from here, but would very likely find big investor among Big Tech bailing out existing shareholder in exchange for big piece. However there is 80% chance it goes up to fair valuation from here, which I estimate at $150B/$800. Some would call that a rich valuation as it is equal to biggest car companies like Toyota, but difference is Toyota next 10-20 years is likely to stay stagnant and may even be at risk of default, while Tesla will likely become a much bigger car company than Toyota, simply by - keeping - it's leadership in EV's and autonomous vehicles, a market that will likely completely replace ICE cars and expand transportation market, in only 10-20 years as battery and EV tech becomes cheaper and autonomous self driving better. Great video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TxjIimFRYs

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