Marc De Mesel: Tesla Reached Serious Overvaluation
$TSLA currently at $1400 / $260B just reached Serious Overvaluation of 220% vs Log Regression Trendline / Fair Value, standing at only $120B. Previous bubble peaked at 260% in 2014 which would give a valuation of $310B / $1700.
Taking into account a margin of safety, I believe it's wise not to try to sell at top but sell once clear historical high overvaluation is reached, which we clearly did. On the other hand I am missing Euphoric sentiment among investors, cockiness, yes, but euphoria not yet. Mass media also not reporting much on it, and retail investors still skeptical of the rise.
I also think Tesla bubble will likely not deflate much like for example crypto bubbles, but go to a new plateau, making selling at top not an urgency as likely the top will be revisited within half a year and set slightly higher highs even.
My Tesla exposure of 30% I like to fully liquidate but considering the shape of the bubble I think it's wiser to sell with stop loss orders, moving them up with price, rather than offering my shares for sale at slightly higher market price, so that I capture potential gains I do not expect.
Links:
Trololo Trendline - Drawing Trendline of Past Market Cap Prices & Judging Current Valuation Against it
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ujXSmxad9WrNpkPhuJv_kcNvy6TtVMNTQZQt3lwYeA0/edit#gid=290376397
Previous Tesla Analyses:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rT15WClZBlo&feature=youtu.be
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