Marc De Mesel: Tesla Fairly Valued Again at $500, Still Likely to go to $1500

  • Sunday, 29 March 2020 07:44
#Tesla was on it's way to go into serious overvaluation towards $1500 but the Kung Flu Panic put a stop on that and made it correct from $950 to low of $350, now back at $500. Compared to historical valuations and growth rate, current $100B market cap is also where the trendline is and therefore we can say it is fairly valued again. However, once stock market pics up again, since momentum was so strong and fundamentals remain intact and have even improved due to crises as likely some legacy automakers have been taken out now, very likely Tesla will be one of the first to continue to go up strong, this time into serious overvaluation, which historically points to $270B / $1500 if it were to happen by Sep 2020. Price To Sales/Revenues ratio also points to this valuation as peak valuation previous bubble 2013 was 24x when $TSLA shot from $30 to $150 but since market cap 10x higher now, likely lower volatility expected so 24x unlikely, 18x possible, 12x probable, would also be $1500 currently. There is potential for even higher prices thou as revenues have actually gone up more than historical valuation of the company, so possible to overshoot green upper band to $350B MC / $2200 per share, which would be 18x Price To Sales Ratio, before going sideways again for many years. As the saying goes, better to buy a great company for a fair price than a fair company for a great price. Also show at end how coronavirus is growing slower globally now than at start in China and likely to stop growing exponentially globally as quick as it stopped also growing exponentially in the East once measures were taken, within 2 weeks from here ... Links: Historical Graph Price To Sales Ratio: https://twitter.com/MarcDeMesel/status/1224548570055028740 Google Sheet Log Regression/Trendline Tesla: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ujXSmxad9WrNpkPhuJv_kcNvy6TtVMNTQZQt3lwYeA0/edit#gid=290376397 Google Sheet Historical Returns Since 1928 of Stocks, Gold, PP, Interest Rates, Inflation: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cRYZmRJl7v_OkCdS6mEYQpt4LsBPAaviIhZgRLFJqxs/edit#gid=59

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