Marc De Mesel: No Oil Tankers, Cruise & Airlines For Me

  • Saturday, 02 May 2020 06:49
'Ale's World of Stocks' made a good point "How is investing in a company with zero revenue and billions of running costs an investment?" Sure Cruise lines like Carnival ($CLL) are valued low on first impression, 60% discount on book value ($10B market value vs $30B book value), a historical low never achieved in it's 40 years of existence, only once went below book value in 2008, and only 20%. BUT, this crises is one of a kind, ZERO revenue for likely a year, means a loss of half a billion per month! They did get $10 Billion loan but at 10% interest, will likely burn a good piece of that money, that need be payed back, this will take years. This kind of crises where the whole fleet is grounded for half a year and likely will take 2 years before back to normal, is a total disaster for a company, and has good chance to wipe out current owners as a default, or another bailout investments down the line diluting shareholders dramatically, is still a high risk, despite having secured a big loan. Also book value is likely not even close to market value anymore as these big cruise ships are likely going for pennies on the dollar today. The industry will recover, but the risk for current stockholders to book more losses is still high in my opinion, so not worth taking the risk. Budget airlines like Ryanair and Wizzair look interesting, but they are not discounted that much yet, 50% or so while their losses are of course staggering too with 90% of planes grounded for 2 months and likely take a year before back to normal, and politicians will likely continue to make their life hard with even more costly regulations to "keep us safe". Budget airlines will continue to grow by taking away market share from the big boys but they also will have to cope with the fact that people are more and more able to avoid flying thanks to innovations like the selfdriving car that seems only couple years away and will make short flights not worthwhile. Work from home also sees fast growth now thanks to the crises, will likely not be dropped fully after the crises, and competes with the most lucrative segment: business flights. Also researched Oil tankers, they make indeed tons of money today, able to charge 10 times as much ($200k instead of $20k per day), to rent out their tankers, valuations of companies like for example $TNK are indeed low, and I do believe it to be correct that little investment has been made in new ships, the fleet is generally old, and therefore supply of ships, even after the crises when demand for oil picks back up, and there is no such high demand anymore for storage of oil, will still see a shortage of ships, keeping shipping rates relatively high. However, oil is likely going to become a shrinking industry as Electrical Vehicles have just surpassed early adopter phase of 2% penetration and will likely over next few years go to 30%, which will likely see oil consumption go down over time instead of up, which will cause in the end, the amount of Oil Tankers needed to go down too, so short term good, but long term risky investment in my opinion. I don't like to invest in industries that do not have a bright future, it's likely going to destroy your capital, as people need less of it, instead of more. The best Oil Tanker companies can do is not reinvest in more ships, but take the cash out of the company and invest in new industries, like electricity instead of oil transportation & storage, which we will need much more off. As for me, I like very much Crypto, EV's and, hopefully if market corrects enough, Genome Revolution, all of which are uncorrelated, have each a high chance to take over old industries completely as they offer clear advantages of better results, and at a cheaper price, than the old tech. Good videos: Is It Finally Time To Buy CARNIVAL CRUISE Stock?! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cN7LOp3rWo

Additional Info

Leave a comment

Make sure you enter all the required information, indicated by an asterisk (*). HTML code is not allowed.

Disclaimer: As a news and information platform, also aggregate headlines from other sites, and republish small text snippets and images. We always link to original content on other sites, and thus follow a 'Fair Use' policy. For further content, we take great care to only publish original material, but since part of the content is user generated, we cannot guarantee this 100%. If you believe we violate this policy in any particular case, please contact us and we'll take appropriate action immediately.

Our main goal is to make crypto grow by making news and information more accessible for the masses.