Marc De Mesel: Negatives of $TSLA

  • Thursday, 05 September 2019 19:54
Tesla is great investment I think, much better than last year or 5 years ago, but you can't say it's super cheap at valuation of $40 Billion, similar to other car manufacturers like GM and Ford while still producing 20 times less cars. Agreed traditional car manufacturers are shrinking businesses (with exception of Volkswagen/Porsche who is investing billions in EV), too slow to respond, have huge debts compared to value company, and therefore at high risk of default. But it is not a certainty that Tesla will be the beneficiary and keep it's dominant EV market share. New EV companies such as Rimac and Rivian are innovating as well, and the dozen Chinese EV manufacturers, sharpened by the highly competitive and huge internal market, will be quick to copy Tesla in car quality, distribution & marketing, but not in price! But then again, even if one assumes Tesla loses market share, a smaller piece of a much bigger market, while keeping up margins, would still lead to a much bigger and higher valued company, as Apple showed in smart phone market, and ARK Invest showed in their financial estimates leading to still a $4000 per share valuation in 5 years. Other negatives are that selfdriving, for which the hopes are high among $TSLA investors and therefore already priced in somewhat, may be overrated and never come to fruition. Customers Service, when it comes to fixing defects and availability of parts is disastrous, and the attitude of Tesla is one of "Take it, or leave it.", something they can afford today being the hottest chic in town, but might cost them in the long run to disappointed customers starting to support competition. And lastly, the convertible bonds have such favorable terms, much less downside risk and same upside potential as shares, that it will likely cause a lot of dilution for current shareholders even if things work out. Not mentioned in video is that Tesla it's biggest asset, Elon Musk, is also it's biggest risk, who with his grand vision and all-in approach, also slips up sometimes, even in non related projects, for which bills need be payed too, likely by you, the TSLA investor (Solar City). But those bills are nothing compared to Elon Musk possibly unexpectedly dying, for which chances are much higher considering he is a treat for many established sectors of the economy (Car manufacturers & dealers, oil companies, telco's, insurance ...) which would likely take the stock to new lows, possibly never to be recovered from. All that being said, these risks are in my opinion worth taking as the potential reward of Tesla is much bigger that Big Tech as for first time the silicon valley spirit is applied to, not just the digital, but also the physical world, becoming potentially a much bigger company than the Google, Amazon, Apple's of today. Many thanks to the great Jack Ricard who I got most of this from and is the expert when it comes to Tesla. His website with great articles: http://evtv.me/ His YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/marionrickard/videos

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