Cedric Dahl: Live - Recession Watch? Pt 4
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Links for the data we'll be talking about
Trend data for a US currency crisis in 7 years
Source - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18PilM19a3093-4TO4YsZrX5O0eWdf2iYJyaxIRoJ5mk/edit?usp=sharing
Budget
In ~$3T
Out ~$4T
Source - CBO budget projections - https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-05/55151-budget_update_0.pdf
Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product
2007 - 60% (fin crisis)
2012 - hit 100%
2019 - 104%
Source - FRED Econ research https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
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$ in vs out
Source - https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55342)
Daily debt numbers
Source- https://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/debt/search?startMonth=03&startDay=31&startYear=2005&endMonth=02&endDay=23&endYear=2018
120% = Breaking point (via investopedia - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/debtgdpratio.asp)
* GDP growing X / year = 2.5%
* 21T
* Debt growing
* Debt = 21T
* Growth Rate 1T / year = 5%
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Economic participation (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate)
% Working (15 - 74) - 63%
Employed Pop - 154 M
Working Age Pop - 237 M
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Healthcare - 18%
Tech - 7%
Retail - 6% ( jobs shrinking, income growing)
Additional Info
- Read full article on: Cedric Dahl
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