Marc De Mesel: It's Always Darkest Before Dawn
Due to this massive parabolic run to $8k / $230B, odds for serious correction have become very high but sadly, odds we saw bottom half year back have increased also a lot. Raised my buy orders, and plan to go back to majority exposure of 60%, no longer at -50% but at -35% undervaluation compared to trendline. Trendline currently stands at $262B, so correction to $180B, $5900 BTC, will do the trick, and is still likely to be hit.
However have accepted that I will likely be unable to invest a big piece of my portfolio sitting in cash, and that I had reserved to invest in crypto, as my undervaluation target of -80% below trendline, even -50%, seems more and more unlikely to be hit (again) during this bear market, before we go into a new bubble, and will have to start looking for other investment opportunities.
Links:
Big majority people think we go higher, even among my followers:
https://twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/1127839849740947456
Calculate trendline in real time:
https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E(3.03529++*+ln((number+of+weeks+since+2009+Jan+09)%2Fweeks)+-+7.67399
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