Marc De Mesel: Crypto Steady or Decelerating in Growth? S-Curve Analyses
Don't think another leg up, reaching $50k or $100k Bitcoin is probable in 2018 or even 2019, simply because for this to happen growth rate year over year should be as strong as the early days. This is unlikely with crypto already estimated at 50 million users.
Since I don't have the numbers of actual crypto users year by year I am taking a look at growth rate of internet users, a comparable technology to crypto as learning curve was also steep. There we see that such high amount of users means growth rate is not accelerating, nor steady, but decelerating already year over year.
Trololo his chart also shows that strength of bull market in 2017 was equal to the one in 2013 if you compare it to the trendline/avg price, also making it unlikely there is another leg up before we hit a multi year bear market.
Also interesting to note is that current drawdown of correction of -65% ($800B to $250B) is equal to the last bear in 2014 where it also did -65% on only 3 months ($15B to $5B). Considering this bull market went up much less in actual percentages and took 50% longer, the bear market should also go down much less in actual percentages and also at a 50% slower pace, but none of that!
This could mean either that we are more oversold and will get a better bounce than 2014 before reaching the expected $4000 (-80%) by middle/late 2019. Or this bear market will continue to be as strong and fast as the one in 2014 correcting also in total -87% ($2500) already reached in early 2019.
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