Marc De Mesel: Crypto Predictions

  • Monday, 11 May 2020 12:32
Trololo is back with an update on where we are in the bull/bear cycle. As expected prices have remained below the trendline continuing to pull it down, causing trendline & fair value to still be at $380B half a year later. Current $230B means it's undervalued by 40%, not too shabby and definitely should have piece of your desired crypto exposure locked in at these valuations. However, still high chance to go back to $150B Crypto Marketcap as undervaluation of not 40% but 60% to trendline for next 1.5y is likely. But would not dare to sell your quality coins to try to buy back cheaper as chance high in this second stage of early bull market some of them will pump hard vs Bitcoin Core and vs fiat never to see current valuations again, despite overall CMC to go down. That does not count for many lower quality projets and especially Bitcoin Core which is highly overvalued from any angle you look at it, within crypto world it's market share likely still peaked half a year ago at 70%, but even vs fiat it's $160B valuation is unlikely to go into the trillions people hope for as it continues to be build out as a traditional bank with high costs, slow response, building services that add counterparty risk instead of reducing it (LN, Liquid), and therefore will likely lose the race for global adoption to it's competitors like Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and likely several others. Also go into the difference between these two, Tezos & Chainlink. Google sheets: Trololo Trendline - Judging Valuation Using Historical Avg Prices & Growth https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ujXSmxad9WrNpkPhuJv_kcNvy6TtVMNTQZQt3lwYeA0/edit#gid=465266941 Crypto Investment Plan - Increasing Exposure as New Lows are Reached https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WSeePxcqVyZ__99I-dAcvMBZuEzTq1DX8KzstSKoS5c/edit#gid=43

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