Marc De Mesel: Crypto Double Test Bottom of $100B Still Probable BUT Risky To Play
Studying Trololo Trendline chart more, came to realization Testing Bottom again of $100B, $3150 BTC is still likely, not unlikely, as it is likely we will, over next 2 years, be not at current 50% vs Trendline, not even 40% as happened in 2016, but this time 30% vs Trendline (currently at $380B, so $120B) and stay at 30% Undervaluation vs Trendline until the ATH of $800B is breached by 2022 and we go again within 1 year into parabolic growth and overvaluation to Trendline, likely topping out around 2.5T by 2023.
However, I do believe risk has gone up a lot to try to trade this move and sell crypto today around current $190B to try to buy back cheaper since we are already in clear Panic & Fear territory, not only for crypto, but for the global markets as well. Additionally lots of money has been printed past few weeks, and pockets of politicians and their buddies have been filled and likely invested in market so spooking the populace with Kung Flu no longer in their interest.
I was successful in selling crypto several times past year relatively high and buy back cheaper later, stashing more coins, but this streak of success will run out, and when it does, it will be an epic fail, losing all the extra coins you stashed and then some, and would have better never traded and just held on to whatever amount of coins you had from last cycle.
Short term trading, selling a valuable long term investment, is to be done only when the odds are highly in your favor, which can no longer be said for crypto or stocks today. Long term investing is what should be the order of the day now that most expect recession and even depression, and that dictates buy low when it is clearly low, don't try to pick bottoms (as it can get very messy), and STAY INVESTED, with your eye on the very likely long term tremendous profits you will make, and you risk missing out on completely by trying to squeeze the orange even more.
If you haven't bought enough #Crypto yet, it is recommended to - try - to buy cheaper as today's $190B and set buy orders around $150B and even $120B. For this to be successful preparation is key, by sending fiat to exchanges in advance and place them in open buy orders that you do not pull when about to be filled. Also setting a stop loss to the upside is recommended, in case low ball offers do not get filled, it is still wise to invest the fiat at considerably higher valuations, say at $250B, as it's likely to go to 2.5T in next 3 years.
Links Google Sheets:
"Trololo Trendline - Judging Valuation Using Historical Avg Prices & Growth"
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ujXSmxad9WrNpkPhuJv_kcNvy6TtVMNTQZQt3lwYeA0/edit#gid=465266941
"Crypto Investment Plan - Increasing Exposure as New Lows are Reached"
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WSeePxcqVyZ__99I-dAcvMBZuEzTq1DX8KzstSKoS5c/edit#gid=43
"Historical Returns Since 1928 of Stocks, Gold, PP, Interest Rates, Inflation"
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cRYZmRJl7v_OkCdS6mEYQpt4LsBPAaviIhZgRLFJqxs/edit#gid=59
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