Marc De Mesel: Commodities Bear Market Another 10 Year? ?
Going a little more in depth why I think bear market for commodities such as Gold and Uranium will likely continue another 10 year but like in 1987-1990 may have a rebound the next few years. However, like then, the rebound did not reach high of 1979, and after rebound found new lows and bottomming out only in 1999. Think odds are highest for a repeat scenario in which case bottom will be reached only by 2030! A risk I do not dare to take.
I like to see more indicators that a historical bottom is likely reached. Such as declining production for several years. Historical low valuations real inflation adjusted. For example Uranium is still not cheaper at $20 today than at $10 in 2003 as this is the same price counting 5% real inflation.
Also like to see several years of sidelining of the price typical for end of bear market, also not case yet for Uranium (Chart: https://mobile.twitter.com/marcdemesel/status/985120740168040449).
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