Updated Trololo chart and now also overlayed and extended the bull/bear cycle (blue line). As you can see current prices have pulled historically far away from the bull/bear cycle we are in. Many believe this is evidence the bull has started, but reversion to the mean makes it actually likely it will revert back to blue line any time now and with a force so strong it will overshoot it considerably to the downside. Since the bull/bear cycle is around $100B, this could lead us to a total crypto market cap as low as $50B ($1500 BTC), which would also mean maximum estimate of -85% undervaluation compared to the trendline (red line) is reached when fiat bottom is set, and that may indeed be reached long before the sideways movement comes to an end. Updated my investment plan with lower buy in prices to reflect insight that reversion to the mean will likely cause a strong correction. Ie: Even if bull has started, a true retest of bottom, coming much closer to it than in previous bear market is now very likely, also taking into account declining growth over time and pattern of the past (retest 2012 was 100% higher, retest 2015 was 30% higher, retest 2019 may well be only 10% higher than $3150). Also a warning for people that are over-invested today, and a simulation why lowering your exposure from say 95% to 75% makes a lot of sense.