Marc De Mesel: Be Fearful When Others Are Fearful - Warren Buffett 2020
This crises will not be end for airlines, but it will for Berkshire. Returns past 20 year were already underwhelming similar to the SP500 index since 1999 (7%), but if Buffett is now dumping stock during a crash instead of deploying his big stash of cash, they will likely underperform even the SP500 index, which will cause many investors that have much higher expectations of Warren, to finally trow in the towel, and thereby sink it's value.
Value investing means buying stocks lower as their book value, which is objectively the case for many companies today. Cruise Lines like Carnival ($CCL) selling at all time low price of 40% of it's book value, and probably some airlines too. Sure current book value is likely overstated as currently you likely can't sell those planes and cruise ships for their book value as nobody is buying ships or planes today, but are people going to stop flying or even fly less after this crises is over? Are there truly too many planes as Buffett claims? Likely NO! Pent-up demand may even cause there to be too little planes in a year from here.
Another popular indicator among value investors is P/E ratio, and here too there are stocks for sale during this crises that have clearly a low P/E ratio such as Oil tankers that go for P/E of 4 currently. Does he not see value there? Is there no security in buying a P/E of 4? Is fiat, his largest position currently of 35% or so, a better investment? Or is Apple, already the biggest company in the world and clearly on a decline, worthy of being his second biggest position of 30%?
Value investing is psychologically difficult, these stocks are cheap for a reason, but with vision, optimism and courage a value investor proceeds and invests where others don't see the value, or are afraid to enter. I think Buffett has lost his courage over time, and as of today it has turned into being fearful when others are fearful.
THE BEHAVIORAL INVESTOR (BY DANIEL CROSBY)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldrTIhQtXyc
How Much Money Has Buffett Lost This Year?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovOqfj4TbFs&t=
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