WallStForMainSt: The Calm Before The Next Oil Price Storm?
Shockingly, WTI oil prices have stayed right around $40/barrel (with little to no volatility) for the last 4-6 weeks.
Why Oil Remains Stuck At $40 https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-Oil-Remains-Stuck-At-40.html
Oil Price Pattern Sees Rising Selling Pressure http://www.energyintel.com/pages/eig_article.aspx?DocId=1079616&_branch_match_id=768000486040842861
This is extremely rare for the oil market considering the amount of paper oil futures contracts being 5x the amount of physical barrels of oil.
So what is the oil price's next move? Is the probability of a move up much higher in the oil price or another correction or crash down in the oil price higher?
A lot of where oil prices go next could depend on what happens to oil demand and demand for gasoline and jet fuel. Will demand return to 2019 levels by the end of 2020 or early 2021 or will demand falter as politicians and bureaucrats force continued closures of economies?
Articles on Oil & Gasoline Demand:
1) U.S. Demand For Gasoline Is Still Well Below Its Pre-Covid-19 Levels https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2020/07/15/us-demand-for-gasoline-is-still-well-below-its-pre-covid-19-levels
2) Shell CEO: Don’t Expect V-Shaped Oil Demand Recovery https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Shell-CEO-Dont-Expect-V-Shaped-Oil-Demand-Recovery.html
3) Rystad’s New Oil Demand Scenario Banks On Second Wave COVID-19 https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Rystads-New-Oil-Demand-Scenario-Banks-On-Second-Wave-COVID-19.html
Monitor US gasoline demand here for free: https://www.gasbuddy.com/go/blog
Articles on recent oil industry bankruptcies:
1) Oil firm BJ Services files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24L0HN
2) Another Permian Oil Producer Files For Bankruptcy https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Another-Permian-Oil-Producer-Files-For-Bankruptcy.html
Hedgeye interview with hedge fund manager Michael Taylor on COVID-19: The Big Potential Trades Ahead: https://youtu.be/uZuJTp6ZuJ8
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