Marc De Mesel: Crypto Screaming Buy

  • Monday, 16 March 2020 09:22
At 150B CMC we reached new All Time Low in Undervaluation of -60% vs Trendline (380B) in this cycle, only reached twice before, in previous cycle of 2015 when bottom of $150 BTC, set early 2015, was tested at $200 end 2015, as well as in 2010 when Bitcoin was worth cents and only valued by a dozen of people. This cycle is likely to set new record in Undervaluation of -70%, however, most likely at higher fiat prices as peak in Undervaluation in past was never reached together with low in fiat price but after the sideways movement in fiat price, where price rises upwards but little slower as trendline. A period that is now likely to start. Other indicators are also showing a screaming buy. Such as MVRV of Bitcoin again below 1, a rare event only happened 4 times in 10 year history always great entries, Fear/Greed index showing "Extreme Fear" readings, and most importantly a very high volume reached on this correction, much higher than the previous correction of 6k to 3k end 2018 where bottom of $3150 BTC / $100B CMC was set. Typically a high volume reached means the dealings were done properly and enough coins/shares were shifted from weak to strong hands to be able to change direction. Also very important to note is that the conditions for "Testing Bottom" of $3150 / $100B CMC were met. We went as low as $3800, $115B CMC. It didn't show on coinmarketcap where bottom was $4250 BTC / 122B CMC but major exchanges like Kraken and Bitstamp did reach those levels. Low for ETH was $90, for BCH $150. This means bottom was tested only 10%/15% higher, indeed half the amount reached in 2015 when bottom was tested 30% higher then, so we did go closer this cycle, exactly what we wanted to see as growth is declining over time. This testing of bottom only lasted minutes and got strong V recovery to $5500 in next few minutes hence why I failed to buy at those levels but that is also typical for bottom formations, only the best prepared, fiat orders ready on exchange, open in the book at those levels are able to snatch them. Chance it happens again and we double test bottom is low, so lowered chance we reach this again from 66% to 44%, which also increases my target allocation today from 54% to 58%. Note that I made no mention of Wuhan Flu as reasons why market corrects are irrelevant in price analyses and likely will evoke the wrong emotion. There's always a good scare backing a huge drop, and 90% of investors will see it as a reason why it will continue to drop, fearful it will go lower, holding back the buying. Another criteria met today in crypto where most investors seem shocked and disappointed. It is important to judge the stories that accompany euphoric or panicked markets, that justify these much higher or much lower prices, but often you can easily detect reasoning errors, taking into account way too little the data in front of them that shows the trend will likely come to an end soon. In case of Wuhan Flu, the exponential growth in cases and deaths scares most people but if you study the data it is clear that once people take big measures of social distancing, wearing masks in more risky situations, sanitizing hands often, like happened in China, South Korea, Singapore, the exponential growth stops and we see and actual decline in new cases! Today people finally take it serious globally starting same measures so likely same will happen: within a couple of weeks the exponential growth globally will likely stop, and the markets may front run this, taking away today's opportunity as quickly as it came. People claim we are in a recession and even risk a depression today but the long term trend is that we are in a bull market for stocks and crypto, bear market for commodities and gold and Wuhan Flu does not change this, commodity prices continue to go down, people continue to become more prosperous thanks to it. This means, if u are not fully invested yet in your preferred stocks or crypto, strong corrections are to be bought whereas, if u still have some commodities or gold, bounces are to be sold. And when it comes to cash: very rare does it pay off to hold, so when it does, don't miss the opportunity to make it count as it likely will take long time before coming back. May Courage & Reason Be Your Guide Trololo Chart (now in Google Sheets!): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ujXSmxad9WrNpkPhuJv_kcNvy6TtVMNTQZQt3lwYeA0/edit?usp=sharing Crypto Investment Plan: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WSeePxcqVyZ__99I-dAcvMBZuEzTq1DX8KzstSKoS5c/edit#gid=43 Benjamin Cowen great Youtube channel, who helps making Trololo sheet: https://twitter.com/MarcDeMesel/status/1239225485432885253

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