Bitcoin (BTC) Fails To Defend 200 Day Moving Average, Here’s What It Means

  • Monday, 11 November 2019 15:00 Bitcoin (BTC) Fails To Defend 200 Day Moving Average, Here’s What It Means ©
Bitcoin (BTC) fails to defend the 200 day moving average. This is a major development with serious implications. If we take a look at the daily chart for BTC/USD, we can see that the parabolic uptrend began when Bitcoin (BTC) first shot up above the 200 day moving average. In September, the price finally declined below the 200 day moving average but it shot back above it the next month. Now it has once again declined below it. BTC/USD has now closed below the 200 day moving average for the past few days and it does not seem to be in a position to rally past it any time soon. The longer it remains below the 200 day moving average, the higher the odds of a sharp decline from current levels. If we were trading in an ideal market, then this would be a point to go short. However, we are not trading even under normal market conditions because this is one highly manipulated market. We saw another case of manipulation just yesterday when more than 40 million shorts were liquidated in a matter of seconds in a manipulated move that was similar to the 43% pump. This desperation should tell you what is really going on and why the market makers and whales are fighting tooth and nail not to let traders short the market at this point because that would be very profitable for the traders and the casinos do not want to be handing big payouts. Regardless of any short term manipulation, it is now obvious that a major move to the downside is only a matter of time and we could certainly expect the price to decline to $4,500 in the weeks and months ahead. The decline in BTC/USD in inevitable and we are likely to see it nosedive from current levels sooner or later. However, it is very important to pay attention to changing outlook of the EUR/USD forex pair because it has been known to influence what happens in the cryptocurrency market. We have seen the pair decline below the 200 MA on the 4H time frame which was a bearish development.  However, now we are seeing a move towards the 200 MA to test it and potentially break it to test the 38.2% fib retracement level again. While the EUR/USD forex pair and BTC/USD are both primed for a sharp decline, it does not mean that this decline has to happen immediately. Trading is all about being patient and staying focused on the big picture without being concerned by any short term noise. RSI and the Stochastic RSI for EUR/USD on the 4H time frame indicate that there is plenty of room for further upside. If this pair starts to move up, we can see a short lived uptrend in BTC/USD as well but we need to remain focused on the big picture and any move to the upside would be better considered as an opportunity to sell and not buy at this point.

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